The WTI crude market in September 2025 continued to trade firmly within a $60–70 range. The primary factor supporting this firmness was two consecutive weeks of US crude inventory draws. Continuous inventory reduction is the most direct indicator of physical demand presence, providing support at price lows.
A secondary supporting factor was Russia's fuel export restriction. Russia's decision to prioritize domestic demand by restricting diesel and other fuel exports generated supply tightness for European markets, underpinning broader crude market sentiment.
Both supporting factors — inventory draws and Russia's export restriction — are "supply-side" changes. A market structure where prices are supported by supply constraints rather than demand strength implies a potential synergy when demand recovers, but also a risk of rapid downward pressure if supply constraints are released.
The most noteworthy feature of September's speculative positioning data is the entrenchment of a "$60 is a buy" consensus among market participants. A clear pattern of sustained long positions below $60 is observable, and at moments coinciding with geopolitical shocks, long positions increase in tandem — a structural pattern that can be confirmed in the data.
This consensus carries a character that fosters psychological reassurance among market participants and encourages active market entry. Once the view that "$60 is a buying opportunity" is shared, the mere approach of prices toward $60 triggers new buy orders, functioning as a psychological support level independent of actual supply-demand balance.
While a consensus holds, the range remains stable. However, when the underlying premises supporting this consensus (inventory draws, Russia export restriction) change, the consensus can collapse rapidly. As of September, the premises remain intact, but continuously verifying their sustainability is essential.
The forward curve maintains a dual structure of "short-term tight, medium-term loose." The short end (within 6 months) maintains a backwardation tendency, reflecting physical tightness from inventory draws and Russia's export restriction. In contrast, the medium-to-long end (beyond 6 months) maintains a contango tendency, pre-emptively pricing the supply surplus expansion forecast by the IEA for 2026 and beyond.
This dual structure is an important theme that continues to be observed in the October issue. The coexistence of short-term reality (tight inventory) and medium-term forecast (supply surplus) in a divergent state implies that when either perception changes, it will bring a significant curve shape transformation. As of September, that inflection point remains ahead.
The $60–70 range in September 2025 is being maintained by the convergence of three factors: inventory draws, Russia's export restriction, and the "$60 buy" consensus. The conditions that would break this equilibrium include: inventories turning to a build, Russia's export restriction being lifted, or the IEA's surplus forecast becoming fully entrenched as market consensus, among other possibilities.