Burginvest

Backwardation

逆ザヤ Forward Curve ✓ Verified Citations Academic Origin
<Definition> A state of the forward curve in which the near-month contract (or spot price) trades above the deferred-month contract. In financial and commodity futures markets, this tends to form when the convenience yield — the value, unique to holding the physical commodity, of being able to use it immediately when needed — exceeds storage costs and financing costs. It is a forward curve state that reflects the factors making up the cost of carry: inventory, storage costs, financing costs, and the convenience yield of holding the physical commodity.
Backwardation definition diagramForward curve shape where the near-month price is higher than the deferred-month price Price Near month Deferred month Near > Deferred
日本語
<定義> 期近限月(または現物価格)が期先限月より高い価格体系となる先物曲線の状態を指す。金融・商品先物市場では、現物を保有する便益(Convenience Yield、必要なときに直ちに利用できる、現物保有ならではの価値)が保管費用や資金調達コストを相対的に上回る局面で形成されやすく、在庫・保管費用・資金調達コスト・現物保有の便益など、保有コストを構成する要因が反映された先物曲線の状態である。

<Mechanism>

Mechanism of backwardation formation (overview)Causal chain from declining inventory through rising convenience yield to backwardation Falling inventory Spare capacity shrinks Convenience yield rises Benefit of holding physical Exceeds carrying cost Spot valued over future Backwardation forms

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